As I stated in my previous diary and numerous comments, I believe the Illinois 10th Congressional district is ripe for a flip. Mark Kirk has served as the representative for the district since 2000, and while he claims to be a moderate, his record is anything but moderate. In order to understand why this seat should be a prime target in 2008, it is first important to understand the district and its make up.
The Illinois 10th district covers a significant portion of Lake County in the northeast corner of the state and five townships on the north and northwest sides of Cook County (Cook County is the home to Chicago). The five communities in Cook County are Elk Grove, Northfield, New Trier (Wilmette, Glencoe & Winnetka), Palatine and Wheeling. Due to their proximity to the City of Chicago, the Cook County communities actually account for more votes than the Lake County townships (election data from Lake County and Cook County Clerk Websites).
| Year | Cook | Cook % | Lake | Lake % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 112,117 | 47% | 125,389 | 53% |
| 2002 | 105,847 | 57% | 81,064 | 43% |
| 2004 | 155,369 | 56% | 121,342 | 44% |
| 2006 | 114,754 | 57% | 87,453 | 43% |
More after the flip.
As you can see the Cook County townships represent about 57% of the vote, regardless of whether or not it’s a presidential election. In 2000, the make-up was exactly the opposite. Redistricting by the Republican controlled legislature added two Cook County Townships, Palatine and Elk Grove to the district. These two townships represent just under 10% of the total district vote counts in each of the last three elections and voting trends in those townships approaches 2:1 Republican to Democrat. Maybe when 2010 rolls around, the now Democratic controlled legislature can remove those townships (into either IL-6 or IL-9), but that doesn’t change the opportunity to pick this seat up.
Now that Mark Kirk has won 4 elections, one might assume his long-term incumbency status provides him ample protection but let’s take a closer look at those elections.
| Year | Dem Opponent | Dem % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Gash | 49% | 51% |
| 2002 | Perritt | 31% | 69% |
| 2004 | Goodman | 36% | 64% |
| 2006 | Seals | 47% | 53% |
To put his margins of victory into perspective, here is the money data from the FEC ($ Spent):
| Year | Dem Opponent | Dem $k | Kirk $k |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Gash | $1,967 | $2,030 |
| 2002 | Perritt | $ 473 | $1,436 |
| 2004 | Goodman | $ 89 | $1,654 |
| 2006 | Seals | $1,851 | $3,475 |
Based on the weakly funded challenges mounted by Hank Perritt and Lee Goodman, we should focus on the 2000 and 2006 races. In 2000, Lauren Beth Gash was a well recognized, popular state representative with the ability to raise funds in the district. A quick look at the results shows, she won Lake County, but lost Cook County.
| County | Total Votes | Gash % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 112,117 | 46% | 54% |
| Lake | 125,389 | 51% | 49% |
| Total | 237,506 | 49% | 51% |
Remember, this race was pre-redistricting, so there was more Democratic balance to Cook County to take advantage of. In fact, looking at the presidential results from the townships in the district, State Rep. Gash actually underperformed the Gore-Lieberman ticket by 5 percentage points (Gore won those townships 51-48%).
Looking at the 2006 race, Dan Seals saw pretty much the same story, except he barely lost Lake County instead of carrying it like Gash. Like her, Seals finished way behind in Cook County.
| County | Total Votes | Seals % | Kirk % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 114,754 | 45% | 55% |
| Lake | 87,453 | 49% | 51% |
| Total | 202,207 | 47% | 53% |
Seals proved to be an excellent fundraiser, especially considering his novice political status and zero name recognition. Again, a concern is he underperformed the 2004 presidential ticket by 5 percentage points in the Cook County Townships, just like Gash. But here is the good news (and why we need to target this seat).
1. Seals had the same Cook County results as Gash, despite the redistricting adding the heavily republican townships of Palatine and Elk Grove.
2. Kirk had to outspend Seals 2:1 (see above chart on spending) despite Seals lack of name recognition.
3. The DCCC only spent approximately $125,000
4. Kirk minority status will weaken his ability to bring home federal $ to the district.
5. Either Obama (even as a VP candidate) or native daughter Hillary Clinton (she’s from Park Ridge, IL) will energize Illinois Democrats in 2008.
6. Kirk has very little cash on hand left, only $105,000.
I am convinced these are all reasons that are falling in our favor to flip this seat in 2008, and why the DCCC should make this seat a top tier target. Of course, to make it a race, you need a top tier challenger and I have three candidates that would be great challengers. Dan Seals would be one. He can build on his effort from last year, and has proved he can raise money. He can raise a bunch more if he starts now, and have a sizeable war chest by the time the primary rolls around. My two other ideal candidates are our two local state senators in the district, Terry Link (ten years in the state senate) and Susan Garrett (4 years). They both have good name recognition, ties to the communities in both counties and support within the local party. I am unsure of their fundraising ability, and either one would have to prove their skill in that area to gain top tier target status.
IL-10 has real potential in 2008. After reading this, I hope you agree.
Is Seals running again?
If so then this race should be absolutely top tier.